US Employment Levels Analysis

After publishing my previous post yesterday, I decided to take a closer look at the numbers.

My first thought was, while comparing the current recession to the previous two downturns makes sense, I didn't know how this recession compared to the others before 1990-91, such as the big recession in 1981-82 (a vivid memory for myself). Were there any recessions that were worse than either 1981-82 or 2007-09? (For my analysis, I'm using November 2007 as the start of the current recession.)

What I did was to download the US employment levels data, seasonally adjusted, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the period of January 1948 to the present. From this data, I found nine downturns in which employment sank on a significant basis, followed by a recovery period. I then took percentages from the nine downturns in which the highest level of employment prior to the downturn (the peak month) is equal to 100%. Following months, through to the point where the employment level once more reached the level of the peak month, were then compared as a percentage to the peak month.

What I found is that the 2007-09 recession is already the eighth worst downturn of the nine. Through January 2009, the employment level is at 96.89% of the peak month's level, a drop of 3.11%. Only the 1953-54 recession is worse (-3.82%). And, of course, there is no bottom in sight yet for the 2007-09 data; if current trends continue, 1953-54's record will be broken in either February or March at the latest.

Adding to the distress is the fact that 2007-09 is already in its fourteenth month past the peak. Only two other downturns took longer: 1953-54, which lasted sixteen months, and 1981-82, which lasted twenty months.

Eventually, of course, previous recessions reached a bottom and then began a period of economic recovery. Of the eight previous recoveries, the average length of time was 12.38 months from the trough month through to the level where employment reached the previous peak. (It should be noted, though, that the previous two recoveries, 1991-93 and 2002-03, took twenty-one and seventeen months respectively, which were by far the two longest recoveries since 1948.)

If the 1953-54 recession is any guide to what may be in store for this recession, any recovery back to November 2007 employment levels will not occur prior to March 2010 at the earliest, and quite possibly not until August-December 2010.

Let's hope I'm wrong, and that we reach the trough and the recovery months more quickly.

3,600,000 and Counting

Here's a graph to make you wet your pants a little. As The Gavel points out, the current recession is much, much more serious in terms of job losses to date (3.6 million and counting) than the previous two. And there's no bottom in sight.

This chart compares the job loss so far in this recession to job losses in the 1990-1991 recession and the 2001 recession – showing how dramatic and unprecedented the job loss over the last 13 months has been. Over the last 13 months, our economy has lost a total of 3.6 million jobs – and continuing job losses in the next few months are predicted.

By comparison, we lost a total of 1.6 million jobs in the 1990-1991 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing; and we lost a total of 2.7 million jobs in the 2001 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing.

US Unemployment Rates - December 2008

The December US regional and state unemployment figures were released in late January. The figures, overall, continue to get worse. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.4%, from 6.8% to 7.2%, over November's number. (November's percentage was revised upward by 0.1%.) For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased 2.3%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.9%, from 12.6% to 13.5%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 4.8%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the states with the largest increases were Indiana and South Carolina, both with a 1.1% increase; six states had a 1.0% increase: Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York and Oregon.
  
• On an annual basis, the state with the largest increase continues to be Rhode Island with an increase of 4.8%. North Carolina remains in second place with an increase of 4.0%, and Nevada has jumped into third with an increase of 3.9%.
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are North Dakota at 0.3%, Arkansas at 0.7%, and Iowa and Oklahoma at 0.8% each.
  
• The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, which increased 1.0% to 10.6%; Rhode Island remains in second place, with a rate of 10.0% (up 0.7%). South Carolina comes in third at 9.5% (up 1.1%).
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be Wyoming (3.4%, up 0.2%), North Dakota (3.5%, up 0.2%), and South Dakota (3.9%, up 0.5%).
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since November were California (-78,200), Michigan (-59,000), and New York (-54,000).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-257,400), Florida (-255,200), and Michigan (-173,000). Texas continues to be the nation's bright spot, with an annual increase of 153,700, down 67,500 from November.

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

Response to BamBam

Once again, I've decided to take a response to a comment on my blog and make it its own post due to the length of the reply.


It is really interesting to me that you would choose (6:25) since you read in it that god veils the hearts of non believers against believing, basically condemning them to his hell without any chance of reprise theoretically, the exegesis for this aya is also revealing.

Actually, I hate to say, I never chose this verse (or 8:31) for the reason you ascribe; I chose both verses because of the similarities of language between what the polytheists in Makkah said ("These are nothing but tales of the ancients.") and what Nizar said ("...you still worship the same ancient myths..."). No more, no less.

However, since you bring up the topic ("basically condemning them to his hell without any chance of reprise theoretically"), I disagree with your assertion; I believe Muhammad Asad's exegesis is more on the mark:

Since it is God who has instituted all laws of nature - which, in their aggregate, are called sunnat Allah ("the way of God") - this "sealing" is attributed to Him: but it is obviously a consequence of man's free choice and not an act of "predestination". Similarly, the suffering which, in the life to come, is in store for those who during their life in this world have wilfully remained deaf and blind to the truth, is a natural consequence of their free choice -just as happiness in the life to come is the natural consequence of man's endeavour to attain to righteousness and inner illumination. Note 7 (Quran Ref: 2:7)

...that is to say, man's "going astray" is a consequence of his own attitudes and inclinations and not a result of an arbitrary "predestination" in the popular sense of this word ... In his commentary on the above verse, Zamakhshari stresses this aspect of free choice on the part of man and points out that "God does not cause anyone to go astray except one who, as He knows, will never attain to faith; and He does not guide anyone aright except one who, as He knows, will attain to faith. Hence, the [expression] 'causing to go astray' denotes [God's] leaving [one] alone (takhliyah) and depriving [him] of all favour, whereas [the expression] 'guidance' denotes [His] grant of fulfilment (tawfiq) and favour .... Thus, He does not forsake anyone except those who deserve to be forsaken, and does not bestow His favour upon anyone except those who deserve to be favoured." Commenting on the identical phrase occurring in 16:93, Zamakhshari states: "[God] forsakes him who, as He knows, will [consciously] choose to deny the truth and will persevere in this [denial]; and ... He bestows His favour upon him who, as He knows, will choose faith: which means that He makes the issue dependent on [man's] free choice (al-ikhtiyar), and thus on his deserving either [God's] favour or the withdrawal of [His] aid ... and does not make it dependent on compulsion [i.e., predestination], which would rule out [man's] deserving anything of the above." Note 4 (Quran Ref: 14:4)

In other words, non-believers are not "condemned to hell without any chance of reprise." They all have the chance throughout their lives to mend their ways if they will only take the opportunity. The question is, will they? The further they go down the path of unbelief the more likely they will not do so. As they follow along that false path their hearts become more and more veiled. And yet there is still hope (IMO). We are all tested, believer and non-believer; insha'allah, we may recognize the errors of our ways prior to death.


IT is not always the imitation in us that drives us to move further away from religion, sometimes it's knowledge that does that. History is full of examples where people of highly regarded religious knowledge move away from religion because of moral conflicts.

In which case I'd say that people are failing their tests. Knowledge doesn't equal conviction. Knowledge isn't the most important criterion. Perhaps you're familiar with this part of a hadith qudsi (#6)?

[Another] will be a man who has studied [religious] knowledge and has taught it and who used to recite the Quran. He will be brought and Allah will make known to his His favours and he will recognize them. [The Almighty] will say: And what did you do about them? He will say: I studied [religious] knowledge and I taught it and I recited the Quran for Your sake. He will say: You have lied - you did but study [religious] knowledge that it might be said [of you]: He is learned. And you recited the Quran that it might be said [of you]: He is a reciter. And so it was said. Then he will be ordered to be dragged along on his face until he is cast into Hell-fire.

Don't just rely upon your nafs to say, "Well, I'm smart enough in my knowledge of religion to say that this apparent conflict goes against my principles; therefore, religion is wrong and I'll become a non-believer." If your principles were in line with your religious knowledge you'd work your way through the moral conflict:

Whoever among you witnesses a bad thing, it is necessary for him to bring that to a halt with his hands, and if he does not have the potential for that; then he should stop him through his tongue, And if he does not have the ability to stop that with his tongue, then by his heart; he should think bad of this sin and that is the lowest level of Iman.

The reality that religion (abrahamic and otherwise with few exception) creates moral conflict in our current society and doesn't allow the space for it to be more encompassing of growing trends or realities. So the result is that people either create new sects with encompassing understand of their own religion or drop it all together into the ritualistic sphere ... others adhere strictly (usually causing conflict) and they should all co-exist.

The details of human life change over time; the nature of humanity hasn't. As I commented on a friend's blog:

Have we really changed? No.

You have left, O Hector, sorrow unutterable to your parents, and my own grief is greatest of all, for you did not stretch forth your arms and embrace me as you lay dying, nor say to me any words that might have lived with me in my tears night and day for evermore.” (Andromache, the wife of Hector, grieving over his death in The Iliad)

The Iliad is perhaps the world’s first novel-length story, with the text being written down - at the latest - by the 6th century BCE. I’ve always thought that if you can understand the grief of Andromache, then humanity hasn’t changed in at least the past 2500 years.

The Qur'an and Islam (indeed, one could argue all religions) are concerned about human nature. "Growing trends and realities" are irrelevant. Nothing has really changed except that people would rather follow their nafs by either creating sects or going into unbelief.


I leave you all with one question, would a person who leads a moral life and does his fair share of goodwill and is religious deserve to be incarcerated and tortured for an eternity in a place called hell because he picked the wrong god?

Allahu alim. Who are we to judge who goes to hell and who doesn't? Are you trying to set yourself up as judge of humanity? You've certainly made a start, setting up your own standards; the problem is, you don't know if your standards match His standards. Best I think to follow His, considering that yours is pure conjecture and He is all powerful.

Response 2a to Nizar

Because Nizar has been waiting so very patiently for my response to his comment, and I'm going to be tied up through this Friday at the very least, insha'allah, with PhD application matters, I thought I'd post what I had written so far; insha'allah, I'll get to his other questions later.

Second, I wouldn't really call my self slipping, because my actions are not the result of what you might call an accident caused by carelessness, lake [sic] of attention or self occupation in life but rather a conscious choice taken that based on logical thinking.

I think your so-called "conscious choice ... based on logical thinking" is partly rationalization (led on by your nafs). I do think, to a degree, that your decision is based in part on a carelessness in studying your religion. (When was the last time you read the Qur'an? When was the last time you read the Qur'an very carefully, including reading someone's exegesis?) I suspect that your case is somewhat monkey-see, monkey-do. A lemming-like desire to follow the path of other scientiests. "If they are so smart and yet they became atheists, then maybe I should be like them in that regard too."

Third, I doubt that you understand me simply because all the switching that you have done is just from a religion to another, which doesn't make a lot of difference because you still worship the same ancient myths that hasn't been proven to exist in any way just in a different method.

First, I don't think you read what I wrote very clearly (just as in your next point). Secondly, you not knowing me, I only told you part of my religious background; you're probably assuming that I'm only familiar with Abrahamic religions; in fact that's not the case at all. As for proof, we'll discuss that below. BTW, do you know how much you sound like the pagans of the Prophet's (pbuh) time?

Of them there are some who (pretend to) listen to thee; but We have thrown veils on their hearts, So they understand it not, and deafness in their ears; if they saw every one of the signs, not they will believe in them; in so much that when they come to thee, they (but) dispute with thee; the Unbelievers say: "These are nothing but tales of the ancients." (6:25)

When Our Signs are rehearsed to them, they say: "We have heard this (before): if we wished, we could say (words) like these: these are nothing but tales of the ancients." (8:31, and so on)

Fourth, Rationality is not a trap!

I didn't say rationality is a trap; I said that the Cult of Rationality is a trap. There's nothing wrong with rationality per se; in fact it's encouraged by Allah (swt) in the Qur'an. What's a problem is when people begin a form of "worship" for rationality. Dhikr, the remembrance of Allah (swt), gets pushed back by the cultists in favor of a reliance upon rationality, thinking that rationality is the panacea for mankind's problems. Not all problems can be solved by science, logic or technology.

Fifth, Science and logic are no replacement product for morals and ethics.

Unfortunately, the Cult of Rationality believes that the opposite is true.

Morals and ethics are not a product of religions although religions have contributed a lot in developing human morals to the point that it is at today.

Don't begin to contradict yourself. Morals and ethics are indeed a product of both religions and philosophy, with religion probably contributing much more to the development of both morals and ethics than philosophy.

...nor is it [technology] vital for human existence because it is more of a luxury than a necessity.

Riiight. So do you eat your food raw with your hands? Or do you use kitchen utensils, stoves, microwaves, etc., and dine on plates, bowls, and so on? When are you moving out of your home to live in the forest? Be sure not to build a lean-to or use any knife or axe; that's technology too, you know. (I point this out, even though it's a tangential issue, to show that you're not fully reasoning through some of your arguments.)

So you claim that science and logic are not the right tools to pick if I want to understand life, but instead I should choose morality?

No, I'm saying you use the right tools for the job. Science, logic and technology are fine for the purposes they were designed for, which you stated in your definitions. To live a good life you're going to use tools like morality, ethics and philosophy. However, even living a "good, moral life" is not requisite enough to get into heaven (jannah), even if you do believe in an afterlife. (Allahu alim.) According to the Qur'an, the three minimum requirements are belief in Allah (swt) and the Last Day, and to work righteousness (which I would take to mean living a "good, moral life"); this is per 2:62. Based on other readings I believe the worship of Allah (swt) is also extremely important. (Certainly prayers will be counted first above all other actions on the Day of Judgment, as per Ahadith Qudsi (#9).) As Naeem pointed out the other day, you can gamble: if you don't believe in an afterlife and there is none, then nothing is lost (nothing is gained, either). However, if there is an afterlife and you've gambled the wrong way, then the penalty may be very severe; likewise, the reward for having gambled the right way may turn out to be better than the penalty (although you may then face a charge of hypocrisy and face the same penalty as an unbeliever would). Ideally, you live your life as a pious, true believer. Islam, as you know, provides the basis for both belief in Allah (swt) and the tools for living a good life (morality, ethics, philosophy). Living a good, moral life is only one-third of the equation.

...but what if I tell you that non-believer behave better morally than believers and I can prove to you that with statistics.

I already know the "statistical" argument, and it's quite weak. You're going to want to say that the percentage of atheists/agnostics in prison is much lower than the percentage of atheists/agnostics in the general public. Here are three reasons why that argument is weak:

• You're trying to define "moral behavior" in terms of who goes to jail and who doesn't. However, going to prison is not always equivalent to "immoral behavior." A person can behave immorally and yet not go to prison. One could, for example, lie, commit adultery, be mean (stingy, miserly), be a party to abortions, dishonor one's parents, and so on, and none of those would necessarily land you in jail. Yet the person is still behaving immorally. Your "statistics" don't capture that data. Immoral behavior is a far broader category than just those people who go to prison.
  
• Not all criminal behavior requires a jail term. People might be charged with crimes for immoral behavior and receive other forms of punishment (fines, community service, probation, house arrest, restitution, etc.) while never actually stepping inside a jail cell. Neither side of your equation takes into account both sets of data.
  
• Going back to the idea that "going to prison is not always equivalent to 'immoral behavior,'" one does not necessarily need to commit immoral behavior with the intention to do wrong and still end up in jail. For example, manslaughter. "A" hits and kills "B" with his car while "B" was crossing the street legally. "A" did not intend to kill "B" as the incident was purely an accident. Even so, almost all states in the U.S., for example, have vehicular homicide statutes on their books and people like "A" may find themselves in jail for a very long time.

These are three reasons off the top of my head; if I spent more time, I might be able to think of a few more. The surprise for me is that atheists and agnostics, who pride themselves on their "rationality," fail to take into consideration these flaws.

Sixth, How do you know that God exists outside the universe?

I'm actually working on that post; however, it's been pushed to the back burner as I have several other higher priorities to do right now.

"Bedtime Music" Hiatus

Just a brief note to say that I'm putting my Bedtime Music series on a one-week hiatus, insha'allah. I've got some things to do this week that are of a super-high priority. I may or may not get time to do other postings this week; if I do, expect them to be very short and simple (like videos).

The Unemployed: Lazy or Productive?

A short, interesting Freakonomics blog post over at The New York Times: what do people do when they're unemployed? Are they lazy with an excess amount of free time on their hands? Or do they try to be busy and find ways to raise money while working at home?

How do unemployed people spend their time? How does unemployment affect time use in the entire economy? What is the lost output from unemployment, and what is the utility loss?

...

The unemployed use the time freed up from work for pay almost entirely in leisure and personal maintenance; they do no more household work than employed people. Similarly, in areas where unemployment is perennially high, there is less work for pay, more leisure, but no more household production.

But when unemployment suddenly rises, as in a recession, people shift from work for pay to household production; people don’t take more leisure time than before.

So if we would measure output to include production at home, we would infer that a recession doesn’t reduce total output by as much as we thought; and perhaps the utility burden of a short recession is not as severe as one might imagine.

The Daily Show on the Closing of Guantanamo and Faux News

Both of these are pretty funny. Enjoy!

The prisoners at Guantanamo could go to prisons within the US, to allies abroad, or to synchronized dance squads.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Obama Closing Gitmo

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

Faux News is really scared about what might happen, and oblivious to what already has.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Fox News Fear Imbalance

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

Signs from Malaysia

Both of these pictures were taken from a feature at The Telegraph called Sign Language.


Somehow I find it hard to believe that they get a lot of Muslims walking in in the first place. From Kampar, Perak, Malaysia


I hope they wash their hands afterwards. ;) From a newsagent's shop.

Bedtime Music: Bee Gees - You Should Be Dancing

Most people, like me, probably associate the Bee Gee's song, You Should Be Dancing, with the 1977 movie Saturday Night Fever (and rightfully so; the song is on the soundtrack). However, You Should Be Dancing was actually released the previous year, in 1976, on the band's album Children of the World. This was the third song overall and the first song for the Bee Gees that reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in which Barry Gibb used his now-famous falsetto.

This particular video came from the end of a television show (the credits start at the 4:11 mark) in which the Bee Gees performed live at the Manhattan Center on April 17th, 2001.

Bedtime Music: Chic - Le Freak

One of the more popular songs when I was a teenager was the 1978 hit, Le Freak by Chic. The song has an interesting history. Guitarist Nile Rodgers and bassist Bernard Edwards were supposed to have a meeting at Studio 54; however, singer/actress Grace Jones forgot to leave word with management that Rodgers and Edwards were coming. As a result, the two were denied entry into the club. Upon returning home, Rodgers and Edwards began jamming together. Their anger at not being allowed into the club resulted in the beginning of a "protest song." As Rodgers later noted, "...we started singing, 'f*** off!' [Repeats the lick.] 'Aaaaahh, f*** off!'" Later that night, the "f*** off" became "freak off" and then "freak out." The rest, as they say, is history.

The song reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 not once, but three times, and was the best selling record ever for the band's label, Atlantic Records. It was also the best selling single for Warner Music (Atlantic's parent corporation) for twelve years, until 1990 when Madonna released Vogue.

Bedtime Music: The Trammps - Disco Inferno

We're running a bit late tonight, but we can still get this in before we actually go to bed. ;) Tonight's song is Disco Inferno by The Trammps, released on their 1976 album of the same name. In the initial release the song didn't do very well in the pop charts, reaching only 53rd place on the Billboard Hot 100. However, Disco Inferno got a second chance when it was used in the soundtrack for the 1977 movie, Saturday Night Fever; by the spring of 1978 the song's re-release had risen up to #11. Disco Inferno is The Trammps' biggest and most recognized song in the band's history.

Unfortunately, this video isn't of the best quality, although it's interesting for the flashback to '70s fashion. ;) I don't know when the video was shot although, obviously, it was done in New York City.

Thoughts

I guess we've just been expecting too much these past eight years.

Bedtime Music: Gloria Gaynor - I Will Survive

This week's theme: Disco. Yeah, sure, why not? ;)

And what better song to start with than the classic I Will Survive, released in 1978 by Gloria Gaynor on her album, Love Tracks. The song, about a woman who realizes she doesn't need her ex-boyfriend back in her life, was immensely popular back in the day and continues to be popular through numerous covers, parodies, and pop culture references (not to mention karaoke). Interestingly enough, George Carlin ranked this song #9 in his list of the "ten most embarrassing songs of all time." (Then again, lots of people hated disco. Who cares?)



Personally, I've also liked Victor Navone's Alien Song parody. In case you didn't know, the alien's name is Blit Wizbok, and he recently celebrated his 10th birthday.

Response to Nizar

I came across this one guy's blog post tonight (the son of Muslim parents who's slipping into atheism). I tried leaving a comment on his blog but apparently you have to log in to his blog to do so, something I'm not interested in doing. Instead, I thought I'd post my comment here as I suspect he'll find it in a day or two, insha'allah.

Stumbled across your blog. As a Catholic-turned-atheist-turned-Muslim, I understand your doubts although I disagree with your beliefs. I think your dad was wise not to try to argue with you; what kid believes their parents, at least at first?

“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.” (Mark Twain)

What I think you've done is stumbled into the cult of rationality. It's an easy trap for intelligent people to fall into (been there, done that). "Science and technology will solve all our problems and, if it doesn't, logic will guide the way to a bright shiny future." Yeah, that's the ticket. @_@ And it becomes this idol for atheists and agnostics. Science, technology and logic are all very good, but they're merely tools, the means and not the end. As moral compasses they're unreliable. As anyone who's worked with tools will tell you, you pick the right tool for the job; science, technology and logic aren't designed to provide the moral direction mankind needs. But if you want to have a better understanding of the universe or live a better material life (the dunya), that's what you use.

From Ministry of Space Exploration

I find it interesting that you would use the WMAP image of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) for your third picture. A couple weeks ago, I gave a talk to about 60 Muslim children and teenagers about astronomy, and I used that very image for my final picture, my representation of the universe. And one of the kids asked me, "What's outside the universe?" And I answered Allah (swt). Now I've been working on a blog post that expands further on that answer (it's only about half-finished), but what I want to say here is this: as good as the technology is to provide what is, to date, the best picture of the primordial universe, that science, technology and logic will never give you a complete picture. It will never provide you with a basis for your morality. And it will never provide you with an understanding of who your creator is. The cult of rationality can never do that for you. Only Allah (swt) can.

BTW, I agree with your mom regarding Hamas. Ask yourself if the Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto were right to fight back against their Nazi oppressors. Gaza is nothing more than the Jewish version of the Nazi ghetto, and the Jews know that well. Then give some thought to 2:191, and see what your mom says. Remember, oppression is worse than death.

In Mottos We Trust

A very interesting map over at Strange Maps today: the United States with each state's motto written over it. Some of the mottos on the individual states are written in an absurdly small font either due to the size of the state (much of the northeast) or for no good reason (e.g., Indiana). Check out the original post for individual mottos and explanations for each of the fifty states.

The US goes by the motto In God We Trust (but only since 1956, when it replaced the ‘unofficial’ motto, E pluribus unum). A motto (from the Italian word for pledge, plural mottos or mottoes) describes a quality or intention that a group of people aim to live up to - a mission statement of sorts. As such, America’s newer motto has invited more controversy than the older one, since it seems to run counter to the principle of separation of church and state. Its introduction did seem to make sense at the time, what with the Cold War against those godless communists.

As demonstrated on this map, the 50 states making up the US each have their own motto too. The two-and-a-half score state mottos display a wide variety, of quotations, languages and underlying messages. English is the favorite language, but not even by half: only 24 state mottos are originally in English; Latin, once the language for all solemn occasions (and not just exorcisms), accounts for 20. Two mottos are in native languages, and French, Spanish, Italian and Greek account for one each. The system of checks and balances seems to work for mottos too: if the national motto is overtly religious, then only six of the state ones refer to God, either directly or obliquely. Most deal with secular rights, and the readiness to defend them. The Bible is tied with Cicero as the source for the most mottos (three), while classical literature has proven a particularly fertile breeding ground for inspirational quotes (mottos originate with Lucretius, Aesop, Virgil, Brutus and Archimedes).

Bedtime Music: Swing Girls - In the Mood

In the movie Swing Girls (which I briefly mentioned a few days ago), the actresses (and one actor) had been taught how to play music for several months prior to filming; as a result, all of the performances in the movie were "real," performed by the actors themselves. When the film was released, they did at least one promotional concert, entitled "Swing Girls' First & Last Concert" (although I've read on IMDB that several concerts were performed in both the U.S. and Japan). This video is of Glenn Miller's 1939 classic, In the Mood.

An interesting side note: In the Mood was apparently based at least in part on the melody of another song called Tar Paper Stomp, written by jazz trumpeter and bandleader Wingy Manone, who recorded the song in 1929 and 1930. After the success of In the Mood, Manone apparently was paid off by Miller and his record company not to contest the copyright.

Discovery of Significant Amounts of Methane on Mars

An interesting article out of NASA today. While I suspect that the methane plumes mentioned are probably of geologic origin, the idea that microorganisms (endoliths) may be living underneath the surface of Mars is not a new one. Certainly the possibility of a biologic origin to some or all of the Martian methane is quite plausible. Cross-posted at Areology.

Mars today is a world of cold and lonely deserts, apparently without life of any kind, at least on the surface. Indeed it looks like Mars has been cold and dry for billions of years, with an atmosphere so thin, any liquid water on the surface quickly boils away while the sun's ultraviolet radiation scorches the ground.

The situation sounds bleak, but research published today in Science Express reveals new hope for the Red Planet. The first definitive detection of methane in the atmosphere of Mars indicates that Mars is still alive, in either a biologic or geologic sense, according to a team of NASA and university scientists.

"Methane is quickly destroyed in the Martian atmosphere in a variety of ways, so our discovery of substantial plumes of methane in the northern hemisphere of Mars in 2003 indicates some ongoing process is releasing the gas," says lead author Michael Mumma of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "At northern mid-summer, methane is released at a rate comparable to that of the massive hydrocarbon seep at Coal Oil Point in Santa Barbara, California."

Methane -- four atoms of hydrogen bound to a carbon atom -- is the main component of natural gas on Earth. It is of interest to astrobiologists because much of Earth's methane come from living organisms digesting their nutrients. However, life is not required to produce the gas. Other purely geological processes, like oxidation of iron, also release methane. "Right now, we don't have enough information to tell if biology or geology -- or both -- is producing the methane on Mars," said Mumma. "But it does tell us that the planet is still alive, at least in a geologic sense. It's as if Mars is challenging us, saying, hey, find out what this means."

If microscopic Martian life is producing the methane, it likely resides far below the surface, where it's still warm enough for liquid water to exist. Liquid water, as well as energy sources and a supply of carbon, are necessary for all known forms of life.

"On Earth, microorganisms thrive 2 to 3 kilometers (about 1.2 to 1.9 miles) beneath the Witwatersrand basin of South Africa, where natural radioactivity splits water molecules into molecular hydrogen (H2) and oxygen (O). The organisms use the hydrogen for energy. It might be possible for similar organisms to survive for billions of years below the permafrost layer on Mars, where water is liquid, radiation supplies energy, and carbon dioxide provides carbon," says Mumma.

"Gases, like methane, accumulated in such underground zones might be released into the atmosphere if pores or fissures open during the warm seasons, connecting the deep zones to the atmosphere at crater walls or canyons," he says.

"Microbes that produced methane from hydrogen and carbon dioxide were one of the earliest forms of life on Earth," notes Carl Pilcher, Director of the NASA Astrobiology Institute which partially supported the research. "If life ever existed on Mars, it's reasonable to think that its metabolism might have involved making methane from Martian atmospheric carbon dioxide."

However, it is possible a geologic process produced the Martian methane, either now or eons ago. On Earth, the conversion of iron oxide (rust) into the serpentine group of minerals creates methane, and on Mars this process could proceed using water, carbon dioxide, and the planet's internal heat. Another possibility is vulcanism: Although there is no evidence of currently active Martian volcanoes, ancient methane trapped in ice "cages" called clathrates might now be released.

The team found methane in the atmosphere of Mars by carefully observing the planet over several Mars years (and all Martian seasons) using spectrometers attached to telescopes at NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility, run by the University of Hawaii, and the W. M. Keck telescope, both at Mauna Kea, Hawaii.

"We observed and mapped multiple plumes of methane on Mars, one of which released about 19,000 metric tons of methane," says Geronimo Villanueva of the Catholic University of America in Washington, D.C. Villanueva is stationed at NASA Goddard and is co-author of the paper. "The plumes were emitted during the warmer seasons -- spring and summer -- perhaps because the permafrost blocking cracks and fissures vaporized, allowing methane to seep into the Martian air. Curiously, some plumes had water vapor while others did not," he says.

According to the team, the plumes were seen over areas that show evidence of ancient ground ice or flowing water. For example, plumes appeared over northern hemisphere regions such as east of Arabia Terra, the Nili Fossae region, and the south-east quadrant of Syrtis Major, an ancient volcano 1,200 kilometers (about 745 miles) across.

It will take future missions, like NASA's Mars Science Laboratory, to discover the origin of the Martian methane. One way to tell if life is the source of the gas is by measuring isotope ratios. Isotopes are heavier versions of an element; for example, deuterium is a heavier version of hydrogen. In molecules that contain hydrogen, like water and methane, the rare deuterium occasionally replaces a hydrogen atom. Since life prefers to use the lighter isotopes, if the methane has less deuterium than the water released with it on Mars, it's a sign that life is producing the methane.

Whatever future research reveals--biology or geology--one thing is already clear: Mars is not so dead, after all.

Photo Credits: Trent Schindler/NASA (first picture); NASA (second picture) For more pictures and animations, please click here

Bedtime Music: Ray Anthony - Harlem Nocturne

I'm happy to say that this is the 100th post of my Bedtime Music series.

Tonight's song is a familiar melody to me, Harlem Nocturne, originally written by Earle Hagen and Dick Rogers in 1939. In writing this song, Hagen was trying to imitate Duke Ellington's sound; since then, Harlem Nocturne has become a jazz standard, covered by many artists and bands.

This particular cover is by Ray Anthony (whose birth name is Raymond Antonioni) from The Ray Anthony Show, a TV variety show broadcast in 1956-57. Anthony is still alive (he turns 87 on the 20th), and has a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. Happy birthday, Ray!

Water Drop

This is a very cool slow motion video of (what seems like a very large) drop of water falling into a container of what looks like sand. It's interesting how deep it drops into the "sand," then returns back to the surface more or less intact before losing its cohesion and bursting. Check it out!

Bedtime Music: Rak Bela Combo - It Don't Mean a Thing (If It Ain't Got That Swing)

Sorry about the lack of a video for last night's Bedtime Music; I was quite busy yesterday.

Tonight's video is of the Duke Ellington classic, It Don't Mean a Thing (If It Ain't Got That Swing). The song was written in 1932, three years before the birth of the Swing Era. The title was based on the oft-stated credo of Ellington's former trumpeter Bubber Miley, who was dying of tuberculosis. According to Ellington, the song became famous "as the expression of a sentiment which prevailed among jazz musicians at the time."

This particular cover of the song is performed by the Rak Bela Combo, a trio of guitarists: Bela Rak Jr., Bela Rak Sr., and bassist Kristof Gelley. I like this video because it's a good example of the versatility of music in performance, in this case playing swing on acoustic guitars.

Study Confirms Local Governments Use Traffic Citations to Raise Money

This isn't surprising; I remember a time my dad got a ticket when we were heading north on the Interstate one year. "You won't receive any points," the cop said. Yeah, no points to be added to your driving record; we just want your money.

Got a lead foot? Hold on to your wallet.

A new study to be published in next month's Journal of Law and Economics finds statistical evidence that local governments use traffic citations to make up for revenue shortfalls. So as the economy tanks, motorists may be more likely to see red and blue in the rearview.

Study authors Thomas Garrett, assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Gary Wagner from the University of Arkansas Little Rock, examined 14 years of revenue and traffic citation data from counties in North Carolina. They found that the number of traffic citations issued goes up the year following a revenue drop.

"Specifically, a one percentage point decrease in last year's local government revenue results in roughly a 0.32 percentage point increase in the number of traffic tickets in the following year," Garrett and Wagner write.

That number may sound small, but it's a statistically significant correlation, the authors say.

The study controlled for demographic and economic differences in the sample, which contained data from 96 North Carolina counties collected from 1990 to 2003.

The finding adds credence to something many drivers have long suspected: Safety isn't the only motive in traffic enforcement efforts. Since many municipalities retain the money generated by traffic fines, perhaps traffic enforcement also acts as a bit of a fundraiser.

"There is ample anecdotal evidence that local governments use traffic tickets as a means of generating revenue…," Garrett and Wagner write. "Our paper provides the first empirical evidence to support this view…."

And don't expect to be able to throttle up when the economy recovers. The study found no significant drop in tickets when revenues increased.

HT: Economist's View

Another Reason to Stay in School

One of the most common reasons given why young people should stay in school is that the more education they have, generally speaking, the higher their income level will be. For example, a person with a graduate degree should make more money than someone with only a Bachelor's degree, a person with a Bachelor's degree should make more money than a high school graduate, and so on. Of course there are exceptions but, in general, this statement is fairly accurate.

Another reason to stay in school is that the more education one has, the more likely one won't be unemployed. The proof? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes a monthly report called The Employment Situation. In this report the BLS slices and dices the employment and unemployment numbers in a number of different ways, one of which is to look at the employment and unemployment numbers by the level of education people 25 years and older have (Table A-4). What the report shows is that there is a consistent pattern in terms of the unemployment rate vs. the amount of education people have. The more education one has, the lower the unemployment rate. In December 2008:

• Those who had less than a high school diploma had an unemployment rate of 10.9%
  
• For high school graduates with no college education, the unemployment rate was 7.7%
  
• For those people who either had some college education or an associate's degree, the unemployment rate was 5.6%
  
• For those people with a Bachelor's degree or higher (Master's, professional, or doctorate), the unemployment rate was 3.7%

Keep in mind that the overall unemployment rate for December was 7.2%.

I get a lot of hits from businesses and universities because I tend to write on topics that are of interest to them; for these people I'm preaching to the choir. (Although, if you're in college but considering dropping out, don't! Obviously the odds are better for you in these rough economic times to continue to stay in school until you at least get your Bachelor's degree.) For those of you who are in high school (or teaching high school students, get the message out to), stay in school! Go on to college if you can. It's far easier to ride out a recession if you have a job and are making money than not. The odds will be in your favor.

Bedtime Music: Santo & Johnny - Moonlight Serenade

New theme this week: big band/swing music. Milady and I watched a cute Japanese movie over the weekend, Swing Girls, which featured this type of music. Insha'allah, I'll talk about the film again later this week.

Moonlight Serenade was originally written and recorded by Glenn Miller in April 1939. The song was actually derived from an earlier song (1935) entitled "Now I Lay Me Down to Weep," the music to which Miller also wrote. This particular video features Santo & Johnny's cover of Moonlight Serenade.

British vs. American Journalism

What makes this interview so refreshing to watch is not just seeing the Israeli PR flack squirm as he gets grilled by the UK's Channel 4 reporter Alex Thomson, although that's immensely satisfying by itself. No, what's so great is the fact that here's a journalist who's doing his job, asking difficult questions, not allowing the interviewee to squirm off the hook. You know, real journalism.



As opposed to the American variety of "journalism," as captured so well by the crew at The Daily Show:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Ordinary Pupils

Barack Obama Interview
John McCain Interview

Sarah Palin Video
Funny Election Video

Bedtime Music: Kiss - Beth

On Monday's Bedtime Music selection, I noted that the song Frankenstein had been a last minute addition to Edgar Winter's album; likewise, that the song was originally the B-side on the 45-rpm single yet was more popular than the A-side. The same can be said for Beth, the Peter Criss ballad on the Kiss album, Destroyer, released in 1976. Ironically, even though Gene Simmons and Peter Stanley both wanted the song off the album (it wasn't your typical Kiss song), Beth has turned out to be the band's highest charting single of all time (#7) and only one of two singles recorded by the band that became a gold record.

Although it's not stated on Youtube, this video is from the February 23, 2003 concert with the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra at the Telstra Dome, Melbourne. The concert was recorded and became the 2003 album, Kiss Symphony: Alive IV. This video is one of the last performances by Criss as a member of Kiss as he left the band shortly afterwards and the band has retired Beth from their concert setlist.

Bedtime Music: Gordon Lightfoot - The Wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald

In my opinion, one of the most important songs from the 70s is that of Gordon Lightfoot's The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, released on his 1976 album, Summertime Dream. For those of you not familiar with the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald, the Fitzgerald was a bulk carrier freighter that sailed the Great Lakes. Launched in 1958, she was, for a time, the largest ship on those waters. On November 10, 1975, the Fitzgerald sank in 530 feet (162 m) of water near Whitefish Bay, Ontario, Canada, without having given any distress calls. All 29 men aboard died. The exact cause of the sinking is unknown. An excellent documentary by the Discovery Channel on the sinking of the Fitzgerald (which I have watched) suggests that three rogue waves in succession may have caused the Fitzgerald to take on water into the cargo holds before snapping the ship in half.

What's interesting about this song is the speed with which it was written and recorded. The Fitzgerald, as mentioned above, sank on November 10, 1975. The sinking was reported in a Newsweek article entitled "Great Lakes: The Cruelest Month," which was published on November 24th. Lightfoot used the article as his inspiration to write the song, which was then recorded in December, 1975.

Bedtime Music: Jim Croce - Time in a Bottle

Although I didn't really start to become interested in the radio until 1974, the works of Jim Croce were extremely popular in the early 70s when I was growing up. Most of the younger generation are probably unfamiliar with his work due to Croce's tragic death in an airplane crash in September 1973, when Jim was only 30. Ironically, he died one day before the release of his fifth album, I Got a Name.

This particular song, Time in a Bottle, was released on his 1972 album, You Don't Mess Around With Jim, with both the song and the album reaching #1 on the charts in 1974. The song was written for Croce's then-unborn son, A.J. Croce, who would later become a successful musician in his own right. Although I haven't found any sources to confirm this, I'm fairly certain that the woman and child in the the video are Jim's wife, Ingrid, and his son, A.J.


Jim Croce - Time In A Bottle 1972 by tch47

Bedtime Music: Focus - Hocus Pocus

The song that made me decide to change the theme this week away from instrumentals was this: Hocus Pocus by the Dutch band, Focus. Technically, there are no lyrics in Hocus Pocus; the song is in the musical form known as a rondo. Here, the vocal parts are yodeling (for which the song is famous) and gibberish, alternating with the power guitar riff.

Hocus Pocus was released on the 1971 album, Moving Waves. This video comes from a 1972 broadcast of the Old Grey Whistle Test. (There is another version of this video at Youtube without the announcer appearing at the beginning and end, but the visual quality is quite poor.)

Bedtime Music: The Edgar Winter Group - Frankenstein

Originally I was going to use the theme of "instrumentals" this week; however, I've found a couple of other videos that I want to use so the new theme is "music from the 70s."

When I originally thought of "instrumentals," one of the first songs that came to mind was of The Edgar Winter Group's classic Frankenstein. This song was originally released in 1973 on the album They Only Come Out at Night. The song was, in fact, a last minute addition to the album and placed on the B-side of 45-rpm records (the A-side being the song Hangin' Around). However, that changed when word came back from DJs that Frankenstein was the more popular song. The original single that was played on radio was only 4:44 long; however, this version, from a 1973 broadcast of the Old Grey Whistle Test, is over twice as long, at 9:12. In this recording, Edgar Winter shows his musical versatility by playing a synthesizer, saxophone and the drums.

Movie Sunday - Forbidden Planet

Earlier this week I stumbled across a webpage that featured clips from various movies. One of those movies is the science fiction classic, Forbidden Planet, starring the late Walter Pidgeon, Anne Francis, and a non-comedic Leslie Nielsen. Loosely based on Shakespeare's The Tempest, this film was influential in a number of ways, from the first appearance of "Robbie the Robot" (who would later appear in about two dozen movies and TV episodes) to being one of Gene Roddenberry's inspirations for his TV series, Star Trek. I've always liked the film because it successfully combines hard science fiction with soft science fiction (most SF focuses on either one or the other).

In times long past, this planet was the home of a mighty, noble race of beings who called themselves the Krell. Ethically and technologically they were a million years ahead of humankind, for in unlocking the meaning of nature they had conquered even their baser selves, and when in the course of eons they had abolished sickness and insanity, crime and all injustice, they turned, still in high benevolence, upwards towards space. Then, having reached the heights, this all-but-divine race disappeared in a single night, and nothing was preserved above ground.

Commander John J. Adams: Nice climate you have here. High oxygen content.

Robby the Robot: I seldom use it myself, sir. It promotes rust.

Drum Corps Saturday - 2005 San Francisco Renegades

The last video I can find for the 2005 DCA championships (for the Open Class)* is of the San Francisco Renegades. The corps scored 92.525 in the prelims and 93.738 in the finals, placing fifth in both competitions. This is the highest ranking the corps has had in DCA to date. The corps' show theme that year was "Days of Future Past," with the following repertoire: Ave Maria, The Ascension, Halloween, Niner-Two (Drum Solo), Open Up Wide, Nights In White Satin, and La Villa Strangiato.

If anyone can point out any other entire shows for this particular championships, I'd appreciate it.

Bedtime Music: Elton John & Kiki Dee - Don't Go Breaking My Heart

This is a favorite song from my teenage years, Don't Go Breaking My Heart, a duet by Elton John and Kiki Dee (Pauline Matthews). I was fourteen when it was released in the summer of '76 (you can do the math to figure out my age ;) ). The song was written by Elton John (and not by Bernie Taupin, although this was before the break-up between the two men in '77-'79), with the song being done in an imitative Tamla Motown style. (Dee had signed with the Tamla Motown label some time around 1970; however, she moved to John's label, Rocket Records, in 1973.) The song was an immense hit for both singers, reaching #1 in both the US (four weeks) and the UK (six weeks); ironically, this was the last Elton John single to reach #1 in the UK until 1990. What's not as well known is that John and Dee have recorded two other duets, a cover of the Four Tops' Loving You is Sweeter than Ever in 1981 and a cover of Cole Porter's True Love in 1993 (which reached #2 in the UK).

How to Protect Your Job in a Recession

The blog Advertising is Good for You linked to a Harvard Business Review article (published September 2008) entitled How to Protect Your Job in a Recession. I thought the article's executive summary had some good advice, so I'm posting it down below. All of the emphases are mine.

As the economy softens, corporate downsizing appears almost inevitable. Don't panic yet, though. While layoff decisions might seem beyond your control, there's plenty you can do to make sure you retain your job. In this article, Banks, a former HR executive at Chase Manhattan and FleetBoston Financial, and Coutu, an HBR senior editor and former affiliate scholar at the Boston Psychoanalytic Society and Institute, describe how to improve your chances of survival. It's mostly a matter of coolheaded planning, they observe. When cuts loom, the first thing to do is act like a survivor. Be confident and cheerful. Research shows that congeniality trumps competence when push comes to shove. Look to the future by focusing on customers, for without them, no one will have work. Survivors also tend to be versatile; tight budgets demand managers who can wear several hats, so start demonstrating what other capabilities you can offer. If you're, say, a manager who once worked as a teacher, take on a training role. Remember to be a good corporate citizen: Participation matters now more than ever. It isn't the time to behave as if work is beneath you or to argue for a new title. When one executive's department was folded under the management of a less-experienced colleague, she swallowed her pride and wholeheartedly supported the new hierarchy. Her superiors noticed her commitment and eventually rewarded her with a prestigious appointment. It's also important to offer leaders hope and realistic solutions. Energize your colleagues around change, like the VP of learning at a firm undergoing major staff reductions did. He organized a humorous in-house radio show that revived spirits and helped management communicate with employees-and ended up with a promotion.

US Unemployment Rates - November 2008

The November US unemployment figures were released recently. The figures, overall, are continuing to get worse. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.2%, from 6.5% to 6.7%, over October's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased 2.0%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.7%, from 11.8% to 12.5%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 4.1%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the state with the largest increase was Oregon (again), with a 0.9% increase; North Carolina had the next largest increase, at 0.8%, and the District of Columbia and Indiana had increases of 0.7% each.
  
• On an annual basis, the state with the largest increase continues to be Rhode Island with an increase of 4.1%. North Carolina has moved into second place, with an increase of 3.2%, and Georgia and Idaho are tied for third with increases of 3.0% each.
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are Nebraska at 0.4%, Iowa and South Dakota at 0.5%, Wisconsin at 0.8%, and Kansas, New Hampshire and Utah at 0.9%.
  
• The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, which increased 0.3% to 9.6%; Rhode Island, which was tied for the highest rate in October remained at 9.3% to place second. California and South Carolina are tied for third with a rate of 8.4%.
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be Wyoming (3.2%), North Dakota (3.3%), and South Dakota (3.4%). Utah has been joined by Nebraska at 3.7% each.
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since October were Florida (-58,600), North Carolina (-46,000), California (-41,700), Michigan (-36,900) and Georgia (-30,000).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are Florida (-206,900), California (-136,000), Michigan (-112,700), and Arizona (-82,200). Two states continue to have statistically significant increases over the past year: Texas (221,200; down 9,200 from October) and Wyoming (8,200; down 1,300).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

Bedtime Music: Nat King Cole and Natalie Cole - Unforgettable

This is not a duet in the traditional sense, two people singing together at the same time; however, the use of audio technology to create a duet between a deceased father and his daughter was a very popular move when Natalie Cole's "digital duet" of Unforgettable came out on her 1991 album, Unforgettable... With Love. (Several other artists have used the technique over the years, including Kenny G and Celine Dion. Ironically, Kenny G was criticized for his "digital duet" with Louis Armstrong's song, What a Wonderful World.) Natalie Cole's duet brought her three Grammy Awards in 1992: Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Best Traditional Pop Vocal Performance. The original recording of Unforgettable by Nat King Cole was inducted into the Grammy Hall of Fame in 2000.