US Unemployment Rates - November 2009

The November US regional and state unemployment figures was recently released. The figures show an overall decrease in the unemployment rates. A total of 37 states had their unemployment rates decrease, while the numbers for 8 states increased; six states had no change. The number of states with double-digit unemployment rates remains at fifteen (not including Puerto Rico). Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) decreased by 0.2%, from 10.2% to 10.0% over October's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased by 2.8% (down 0.4% from last month).
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the decrease was 0.3%, from 17.5% to 17.2%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 3.7% (down 1.2% from last month). The spread between U-3 and U-6 decreased from its historic peak of 7.3% in September to 7.2%.
  
• In terms of a monthly change, the states with the largest decreases were Kentucky and Louisiana, both with a decrease of 0.7%. Connecticut and Nevada followed with decreases of 0.6% each. The state with the largest increase was South Carolina, whose unemployment rate rose 0.3% (as did Puerto Rico's).
  
• On an annual basis, the only state remaining with an increase over 5.0% is Michigan, at 5.1%. Three states are tied for second at 4.3% (Alabama, Florida and Nevada).
  
• A total of fifteen states have double-digit unemployment rates, unchanged from October (not including Puerto Rico, which has an unemployment rate of 15.9%). The state with the highest unemployment rate continues to be Michigan at 14.7%, down 0.4%. Rhode Island comes in second with a rate of 12.7% (down 0.2%), while three states tied for third with a rate of 12.3%: California (down 0.2%), Nevada (down 0.6%), and South Carolina (up 0.3%). The remaining states (in declining order) are: Washington D.C. (11.8%), Florida (11.5%), Oregon (11.1%), Illinois (10.9%), 9%), Oregon (11.3%), North Carolina (10.8%), Kentucky and Ohio (both at 10.6%), Alabama (10.5%), Tennessee (10.3%), and Georgia (10.2%).
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates are North Dakota (4.1%, down 0.1%), Nebraska (4.5%, down 0.4%), and South Dakota (5.0%, unchanged).
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are North Dakota and Nebraska at 0.9%, Vermont at 1.1%, Minnesota at 1.3%, Louisiana at 1.4%, and Colorado, Kansas and Montana at 1.5%.
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment, four states had significant decreases in the number of jobs. Those states are Hawaii (-6,000), Michigan (-14,000), Mississippi (-6,100) and Nevada (-8,800).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-617,600), Florida (-284,800), Texas (-271,700), Illinois (-250,400), Michigan (-240,200), and New York (-210,500). The states with the smallest decreases are South Dakota (-6,800) and Vermont (-7,800).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

US Unemployment Rates - October 2009

The October US regional and state unemployment figures were released today. The figures continue to show an overall increase in the unemployment rates. A total of 30 states had their unemployment rates increase, while the numbers for 14 states decreased; eight states had no change. The number of states with double-digit unemployment rates remains at fifteen (not including Puerto Rico). Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.4%, from 9.8% to 10.2% over September's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased by 3.4%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.5%, from 17.0% to 17.5%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 4.9%. The spread between U-3 and U-6 increased from 7.2% in September to 7.3%. This is the highest level the spread between U-3 and U-6 has been since the U-6 statistics were first published in January 1994.
  
• In terms of a monthly change, the states with the largest increases were Alaska and Wyoming, both with an increase of 0.6%. Arkansas, Washington D.C., Illinois, and Mississippi all tied for the second largest increase, at 0.5%, while Connecticut, Delaware, Ohio, and South Carolina all had a 0.4% increase.
  
• On an annual basis, three states have increases over 5.0%: Michigan at 6.0% (down 0.4%), Nevada at 5.3% (down 0.6%), and Alabama at 5.2% (down 0.1%).
  
• A total of fifteen states have double-digit unemployment rates, unchanged from September (not including Puerto Rico, which has an unemployment rate of 15.6%). The state with the highest unemployment rate continues to be Michigan at 15.1%, down 0.2%. Nevada comes in second with a rate of 13.0% (down 0.3%), and Rhode Island places third with a rate of 12.9% (down 0.1%). The remaining states (in declining order) are: California (12.5%), South Carolina (12.1%), Washington D.C. (11.9%), Oregon (11.3%), Florida and Kentucky (both at 11.2%), Illinois and North Carolina (both at 11.0%), Alabama (10.9%), Ohio and Tennessee (both at 10.5%), and Georgia (10.2%).
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates are North Dakota (4.2%, up 0.1%), Nebraska (4.9%, unchanged), and South Dakota (5.0%, up 0.2%).
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are North Dakota at 1.0%, Nebraska at 1.3%, Colorado, Montana and Vermont at 1.6%, South Dakota at 1.8%, and Louisiana at 1.9%.
  
• In some good news, six states and the District of Columbia had gains in terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs). Those states are Texas (41,700), Michigan (38,600), California (25,700), Oklahoma (8,800), Washington D.C. (5,400), and Montana (3,200). Only Wyoming had a statistically significant decrease in the number of jobs (-2,600).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-687,700), Florida (-339,600), Texas (-307,200), Illinois (-286,300), Michigan (-262,700), Ohio (-243,200), New York (-242,500) and Georgia (-228,000). The states with the smallest decreases are South Dakota (-7,800) and Vermont (-10,700).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

Business/Economics Links (16 June 2009)

Advertising is Good for You:
How restaurants get you to spend more


Angry Bear:
Context for Trade Deficit

Trade Deficits Resume Upward Climb


Crooks & Liars:
President Promises 600K New Jobs This Summer

Report: The Employed Are Hurting, Too. Meanwhile, Heritage Foundation Blames Unemployment Checks for Unemployment.


Dilbert:
"Dogbert the Pirate." ("That's a different business model." Hah!)

"Job Interview"

"Pretend you don't know that."

"Dogbert the CEO"


Econbrowser:
The Dollar as a Reserve Currency: Apres le Deluge

Do you see what I see? ("I'm still looking for, and still not seeing, the economic recovery that everybody is talking about.")

How Important Is China to World Growth?


Economist's View:
Chinese Manufacturers Accused of Predatory Pricing in India

"Cultural Authenticity and the Market" (This was slightly off the beaten track for Thoma, but if you have any interest in archeology, you might find this post of interest.)

Rogoff: Rebalancing the US-China Economic Relationship

Fed Watch: Rate Hike? ("Seriously, a rate hike in this environment? Or anytime before the end of 2009? At the moment, I just can't see it happening. That said, long rate are higher, and inflation expectations in some corners of the market are rising. What is going on?")

2009 Reith Lectures: Markets and Morals ("After my piece ran, The Times was flooded with scathing letters - mostly from economists (LAUGHTER), some from my own university. I utterly failed to understand the virtue of markets, they said, or the efficiencies of trade, or even the most elementary principles of economic rationality. Amidst the torrent of criticism, I did receive a sympathetic email from my old college Economics Professor. He understood the point I was trying to make, he wrote, but could he ask a small favor: would I mind not publicly revealing the identity of the person who had taught me Economics? (LAUGHTER)")


Robert Reich:
The Great Debt Scare: Why Has It Returned?


The Bonddad Blog:
Volcker on Recovery

Flow Of Funds Charts, Part I ("Consider the following charts from the Flow of Funds. Then ask yourself, will the consumer be able to lead us out of recession?")

Consumer Confidence Up

Is the Debt Binge Over?

More Signs of Bottoming

It's Looking Like a Jobless Recovery ("Right now there is no reason to hire -- and there won't be for awhile." This is not a surprise.)

Economics Links (9 June 2009)

Angry Bear:
Untitled post on the Unemployment Report

Current Recession vs the 1980-82 Recession


Econbrowser:
DeGlobalization: Transitory or Persistent?

Not a Robust Recovery

James Pethokoukis: "An Improving Job Market"

Output, Employment and Industrial Production in the "1980-82 Recession"

More on Bank Lending Data

High Anxiety (about Interest and Inflation Rates)


Economist's View:
Too Big to be Restructured (The theme of this essay ties in very well with my post on Mikhail Gorbachev's essay from the other day, "We Had Our Perestroika. It's High Time for Yours.".)

Contributions to the Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Shiller: Home Prices May Keep Falling

Uneven Unemployment Rates

"VAT Time?"

Bank Mergers

"Reducing Inequality: Put the Brakes on Globalization?"


Financial Times:
The ‘part-timezation’ of America


Reuters:
China influence to grow faster than most expect: Soros


Real Property Alpha:
California Home Prices in Ounces of Gold


True/Slant:
NASCAR helped GM down its path of self-destruction ("Better equipped to compete? How ironic, given NASCAR’s role in helping the auto industry race down its path of self-destruction. Major auto companies used NASCAR for years to push cars and trucks with poor fuel economy numbers. The sport, in some ways, came to symbolize America’s embrace of consumption.")


VoxEU:
Why is Japan so heavily affected by the global economic crisis? An analysis based on the Asian international input-output tables

Does climate change affect economic growth?


Washington Post:
Book Review: The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street

Links for 1 June 2009

I've been debating whether to continue the Links series of posts, either in its current format (published primarily on weekdays) or in an alternative format (e.g., weekly, rotating, sans the Politics section or American politics). While I won't stop reading the various blogs and websites that I link to, the actual writing of the Links posts takes a little longer than I would like. Suggestions? Thumbs up? Thumbs down?)

Politics:
Dr George Tiller shot to death at Wichita church (By now you've probably heard about the Kansan abortion doctor who was murdered in a church Sunday. This is one of the early reports. Other links you might find of interest include Bill O'Reilly has Dr. George Tiller's blood on his well-stained hands, Operation Rescue's Randall Terry Is Sorry Tiller Didn't Get Proper Trial And Execution, and Operation Rescue Distances Itself From Roeder’s Activities On Behalf Of The Group (sorry, the blood doesn't wash off your hands that easily). )

Lindsey Graham Says Sotomayor Is Not A Racist But Should Apologize Anyway (Sometimes I think of doing an intelligence index for Republicans; say, start at 100 and then add or subtract points based on any smart or (much more likely) stupid things Republicans say publicly. If we started today, Lindsey Graham would take the Republicans down to 99 already.)

Pressing China With A Nuclear Japan?

Gen. Ricardo Sanchez calls for war crimes truth commission.

Obama Administration Files Petition To Block Uighurs From Entering U.S., Praises Gitmo Conditions (Ridiculous!)


Economics:
What to Do Now with $50,000 Cash? ("If you have USD $50,000 in cash, what do you actually do with the money now? It is probably different by age group, but does one buy Ford at $2/share, swiss francs, some gold?")

Supply, demand, and the price of oil

Guest Blog: Japan's first trade deficit in 28 years

The View from the 23rd Century (This was a rather interesting column, looking at some of the ideas floating around in the field of growth economics and applying a Star Trek-twist to them. Some of the essay is "old" in the respect that the notion of "bits and atoms" has been talked about for a few years now. However, the basic idea of the essay is sound: growth in developed economies is strongest and can be very long lasting when it's based on knowledge ("bits"), with government legislation and spending often the key to moving the knowledge acquisition forward.)

"Incarceration as a Labor Market Outcome" (Although I've been looking at unemployment statistics for a few months now, the incorporation of incarceration rates into the analysis wass a new idea for me.)


Business:
At Harvard, Some Students Are Taking an M.B.A. Honor Oath (As an MBA who's Muslim, I find this type of oath a day late and a dollar short. I think it really speaks volumes about the lack of values inherent in Western society, especially within the business sub-culture.)


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Jesus (AS) in Islam (Austrolabe finally came back online after a five-month hiatus with a link to a documentary on the Muslim view about Jesus (pbuh).)

Al-Muhajiroun sent packing


Miscellaneous:
Alien reboot, a prequel, is confirmed! (The Scott brothers, Ridley and Tony, are going to make an Alien prequel.)

US Unemployment Rates - April 2009

The April US regional and state unemployment figures were recently released. The figures, overall, seem to have stabilized somewhat, even though the national unemployment rate increased by nearly one-half of one percent. Almost one-half of the states had their unemployment rates improve, while the number of states with double-digit unemployment rates remained steady, at eight. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.4%, from 8.5% to 8.9% over March's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased by 3.9%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.2%, from 15.6% to 15.8%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 6.6%. (If there is one bit of good news with respect to U-6, it is that the spread between U-3 and U-6 decreased slightly, from 7.1% in March to 6.9% in April. This is the first time since March 2008 that this particular number has decreased.)
  
• In terms of a monthly change, the state with the largest increase was West Virginia, with an increase of 0.7%. Ohio and Rhode Island tied for the second largest increase, at 0.5%, while Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana and Puerto Rico all had a 0.4% increase.
  
• A total of twenty-one states had their monthly unemployment rates go down in April, with an additional eleven remaining unchanged. The previous month, only two states had their unemployment rates go down with three remaining unchanged.
  
• On an annual basis, four states have increases over 5.0%: Oregon at 6.4% (down 0.2%), South Carolina at 5.3% (down 0.2%), North Carolina at 5.1% (down 0.4%), and Michigan at 5.0% (unchanged).
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are North Dakota at 1.0%, Iowa and Nebraska at 1.1%, Alaska at 1.4%, and Arkansas at 1.6%.
  
• A total of eight states have double-digit unemployment rates, unchanged from March (and not counting Puerto Rico, which has an unemployment rate of 15.4%). The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan (once more), at 12.9%, up 0.3%. Oregon comes in second with a rate of 12.0% (up 0.1%), and South Carolina places third with a rate of 11.5% (up 0.1%). In fourth place is Rhode Island with a rate of 11.1% (up 0.5%). In fifth place is California at 11.0% (down 0.2%); in sixth is North Carolina at 10.8% (unchanged), and in seventh is Nevada at 10.6% (up 0.2%). The newest state in the ranks of the double-digit unemployment rates is Ohio, at 10.2%, up 0.5%. Indiana, which had been among the double-digit states last month, dropped down 0.1% to 9.9%.
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates are North Dakota (4.0%, down 0.2%), Nebraska (4.4%, down 0.3%), Wyoming (4.5%, unchanged), South Dakota (4.8%, down 0.1%), Iowa (5.1%, down 0.1%) and Utah (5.2%, unchanged).
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since March are California (-63,700), Texas (-39,500), and Michigan (-38,400).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-706,700), Florida (-380,300), Michigan (-284,800), Ohio (-262,600) and Illinois (-255,400).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

Links for 27 May 2009

Politics:
Countdown: Worst Persons May 26, 2009 (Laura Ingraham, David Zurawik and Pete Hegseth)

Keith Olbermann Talks to Erich "Mancow" Muller About His Waterboarding Experience (At least here's a guy who puts his money where his mouth as - as opposed to the coward Sean Hannity. "I was willing to prove and ready to prove that this was a joke and I was wrong. It was horrific. It was instantaneous and look I felt the effects for two days. I had chest pains. I told my wife, look I have two little kids-- we prayed. I said dear God help me. I had chest pains I was so stressed out by this.")

Going off the rails on a crazy train (TBogg on the right's reaction to the Sotomayor nomination. "My sense is that, if they really want to go after and beat up on this Sotomayer, who presented herself very well this morning, they will pay for it at the polls for years to come. Not with Hispanics, who were lost to the party dating back to the Pete Wilson days (not that the peck-sniffier elements of the right can help themselves), or with women, but with people for whom "empathy" and compassion aren't qualities to be sneered at.")

Tancredo: Sotomayor ‘Appears To Be A Racist’ (A classic case of “Pot - Kettle - Black.”)


Economics:
US and European Employment Rates

Consumer Confidence Up (I agree, at least partly, with Bonddad that consumer confidence has increased due to the change in Washington politics. But I also think economic conditions have been improving as well over the past few months and people are responding to that as well.)


Business:
Three beautiful ads for dental floss


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Quran Read-A-Long: Al-`Imran 1-9 Discuss the Quran Itself

Lā ilaha illa al-Lāh, Muhammadun rasūlu l-Lāh (The shahada inside a flowery circular badge. Beautiful.)


Miscellaneous:
PSM (A Gillette video (cartoon) about "when there's no underbrush, the tree looks taller." Their advice: use short, light strokes. "Tastefully" done according to one blog (debatable), but definitely R-rated material here.)

Whirlpool Galaxy Deep Field (Very nice pic of Messier 51, the famous Whirlpool Galaxy, and its companion galaxy NGC 5195. It's actually the detail of the smaller galaxy that makes this photo of interest for someone like me.)

Q&A: Hobbit Director Guillermo del Toro on the Future of Film (An interview with film director Guillermo del Toro over at Wired. del Toro, if you’re not familiar, directed Blade II, both Hellboy movies, and the fantastic Pan’s Labyrinth - a must see movie if you’re not familiar with it. His discussion on the future of movies is interesting.)

Links for 26 May 2009

Politics:
Mapping the Fallen (Someone has done a mash-up of all the American and coalition soldiers who have died in Iraq and Afghanistan and marked both their hometowns and the place in which they died on Google Earth.)

Terror Plotter's Sick Brother: 'He Did It For Me' ("What's worse: A healthcare system where someone is so desperate, he'd blow up buildings to pay for his brother's treatment [the brother apparently has a bad liver], or an FBI that thinks nothing of setting people up so they can claim they caught some 'terrorists'?")

Andrew Breitbart says Oprah is secretly running the Obama White House (This guy is a real loon!)

The North Korean Nuclear Test

Israel's Plans For Launching A War On Iran

Obama Announces SCOTUS Pick: Sonia Sotomayor. Now Let The Games Begin! (See also Judge Sotomayor, Right-Wing Interest Groups Driven By Financial Motives In Attacking Obama’s Court Pick, and Obama To Name Sonia Sotomayor As His Supreme Court Nominee.)


Economics:
As Unemployment Claims Run Out, Many Workers Are Opting for Early Retirement


Business:
Cut your ad budget at your own risk (The advice here is frequently taught in business school and is really a no-brainer, but you'd be surprised how often managers do just the opposite. The results of the study are interesting: "Almost half of Americans believe that lack of advertising by a retail store, bank or auto dealership during a recession means the business must be struggling.")


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Upcoming Productions (Bin Gregory announces his future seventh, insha'allah, and writes a wonderful bit of snark about the "Muslim Plot to Take Over the World™.")

Lesson of the Death of 1st Lt. Roslyn Schulte

A school 'condemned to death' ("Why are the authorities refusing to fund France's oldest Muslim school, now facing bankruptcy?")


Miscellaneous:
Hubble Floats Free

Oslo Grand Prix: Horserse (I missed this one a couple days ago, but it's too good not to link to. Ever see a six-legged horse before? ;) )

Links for 20 May 2009

Thank God I did this over two sessions.

Politics:
Republican Strategist Tantaros Thinks Suggesting She Undergo Waterboarding Is "Lame" (Coward.)

Countdown's Worst Person: Bill O'Reilly...New Champion For Protecting Our Privacy

Ventura's smashdown tour continues, with Yellow Elephant Kilmeade the latest victim (Sooner or later, conservatives are going to realize that going mano a mano against Jesse Ventura is not a bright idea.)

Bet Accepted (Seven reasons why Republicans have an uphill battle to control even one branch of the federal government.)

Barton: We Shouldn’t Regulate CO2 Because ‘It’s In Your Coca-Cola’ And ‘You Can’t Regulate God’ (This sort of argument strikes me as similar to what I heard druggies argue several decades ago, that because marijuana, cocaine and other drugs were "natural" (as opposed to man-made drugs like LSD) that it wasn't "harmful." Yeah, right!)

Countdown: Worst Persons May 19, 2009 (The coward Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and Joe Barton.)


Economics:
In Search of ... Hyperinflationary Expectations (Short answer: not any time soon.)

FRBSF Economic Outlook ("To me the forecast seems optimistic, but in any case, employment is unlikely to turn around until many months after output recovers. ... Let's hope the forecast is correct, or even understates the speed of recovery, but policymakers must take seriously the possibility that this forecast - as has been generally true for all the forecasts from various sources that have come before it - will have to be revised downward later.")

Math and the City ("These numerical coincidences seem to be telling us something profound. It appears that Aristotle’s metaphor of a city as a living thing is more than merely poetic. There may be deep laws of collective organization at work here, the same laws for aggregates of people and cells. ..." See also Why Has Globalization Led to Bigger Cities?.)

Geography of a Recession (The New York Times has created an interactive map of the United States that can show you, county-by-county, what the unemployment rate is and the one-year change in unemployment.)

Japan Shrinks 15.2%


Business:
The $5-million billboard. Was it worth it?


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Quran Read-A-Long: The Cow 284-286 Complete the Second Sura

Bibles Destroyed in Afghanistan... By U.S. Military (On May 6th, I linked to a story about US Army soldiers proselytizing (masquerading as "giving gifts") in Afghanistan, with the video showing a stack of Bibles in the Dari and Pashto languages. Now, supposedly, according to an Army spokeswoman, "the Bibles shown on Al Jazeera's clip were, in fact, collected by the chaplains and later destroyed. They were never distributed." Take of that what you will.)

The Uighurs: Compilation ("This is a post compiling the questionable and/or false claims that have been made about the Uighurs.")

If Chris Coleman Was a Muslim? (No kidding.)


Miscellaneous:
Sagittarius and the Central Milky Way

Rose is Rose

Hairdressers Journal: Linda Blair Special (Doesn't anyone review these sorts of images and realize just how badly they've been manipulated???)

Sci-Fi’s Top 5 Toughest Gals (#s 1, 2 and 3 I completely agree with. Four, I'm OK with; Five??? How was Scully "tough?")

Links for 11 May 2009

Happy Vesak Day!

Politics:
Pakistani president believes Osama bin Laden is dead (Pakistan President Asif Ali Zadari believes Osama bin Laden is dead. "I don't think he's alive," Zadari told NBC's David Gregory. "I have a strong feeling and reason to believe that.")

The Faulty Logic of Tea Baggers (More proof that wingnuts have no intelligence.)

Coulter brings up a tender subject for Hannity: Fox anchors getting waterboarded (While I have no love for Ann Coulter, her twisting the knife in Faux News' Sean Hannity over his cowardice to submit to waterboarding - which he volunteered to do for charity - is a delicious irony.)

The Problem is Statelessness (Juan Cole: "In my view, the central problems in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are the statelessness of the Palestinians in the Occupied Territories and in their diaspora, the continued military occupation or blockade by the Israelis, and the rapid expansion of Israeli colonies, which are usurping Palestinian land and rights. ... Until the statelessness of the Palestinians is understood and seen as the central problem that it is, there can be no real progress on the issues.")

Generation Charlie X ("I think people who who spend their time worrying about other people comparing Obama to Spock and then use that as a launching pad to lament failing American/Israeli relations maybe need to spend less time with computers, fanboy movies, and The New Republic and a little more time exploring strange new worlds. You know, like girls; the final frontier.")

Iran Releases Journalist Convicted of Spying for U.S.


Economics:
More on Employment (Bonddad: "What I do see is the possibility of another "jobless" recovery on the horizon." Me: Unfortunately, that is an all-too-true possibility.)


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Prisoners in Ranby jail make bomb to blow up Muslims ("A bomb made by jail inmates to blow up Muslim prisoners came within moments of exploding outside a prayer meeting. The device, made with fireworks and detonators smuggled in with a fishing rod, was put in a room where worshipers wash their hands and feet for Friday prayers. ... But a prison officer spotted it, picked it up and carried it into the middle of the playing field. A bomb disposal unit called to Ranby Prison in Retford, Notts, confirmed the bomb was a viable device primed to go off.")


Miscellaneous:
Top 25 Star Trek Characters

Links for 10 May 2009

Happy Mothers Day!

Politics:
Texas is charging rape victims who cooperate with the police. (Absolutely ridiculous. "CNN reports that Texas hospitals are charging women who have been raped thousands of dollars for their rape kits that are collected by police as part of their investigations. According to CNN, Texas’s crime victim compensation fund consistently has a surplus and could likely cover these expenses.")

U.S. soldiers, attacked, kill a 12-year-old Iraqi boy (Absolutely ridiculous. The boy is found with the equivalent of less than US$9 in his hands, and the US military concludes that "...insurgents are paying children to conduct these attacks or assist the attackers in some capacity, undoubtedly placing the children in harm's way." Eyewitnesses, however, say that the boy "...was standing by the side of the road selling fruit juice - a common practice in Iraq -- and had nothing to do with the attack. Good job, US Army! Shoot first, ask questions later! Child killers!)


Economics:
Oil Prices

Three Pictures from the April Employment Situation (Menzie Chinn on April's employment statistics.)


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Islamophobia (David Sanger's review of Juan Cole's book, Engaging the Muslim World, in the New York Times Sunday Book Review. Generally speaking, a positive review; however, Sanger stumbles badly when he says that the US has troops around the Afghan/Pakistan border "to stop radical groups from taking over either state." What? The Taliban wasn't a radical group?)

Lest You Forgot... (This is one of the newer blogs in my RSS reader; the posting is done erratically, but the writing is well worth reading.)

Scaremongering over Muslim demographics (Indigo Jo on the Muslim Demographics video; I must say I was a little surprised he didn't link my post to his essay.)


Miscellaneous:
The American Indian Give-Away (Very nice diary over at Street Prophets about the Native American Indian practice of "give-aways." Very much worth reading.)

Luann (The comic strip.)

Dilbert (The end of capitalism.)

Links for 8 May 2009

Politics:
Why we need a federal hate-crime law: Exhibit A in rural Pennsylvania (I grew up about 100 miles from where this crime was committed. I am surprised not in the least that this sort of crime happened there or that the teens were acquitted in the local criminal court.)

Latest right-wing-lunatic smear about Obama: Dijongate (Sean Hannity of Faux News going to new lows. Oh, dear! President Obama putting dijon mustard on his hamburger. How elitist!)

Even Joe The Plumber Is Sick Of The GOP, Announces He's Leaving The Party

Coulter: Goldwater lost because he was too liberal ( @_@ Rolling eyes.)

Cheney: ‘I think it would be a mistake’ for the GOP to become more moderate. (Thus sayeth one of the men most responsible for the fall of the Republican party.)

Hannity’s Two-Week Silence: Is He Ready To Admit Waterboarding Is Torture? (The man is a coward.)

The jaws that bite, the claws that catch! (TBogg snarks on Hannity.)


Economics:
This shoot is definitely growing bigger and greener (This is Dr. Hamilton's follow-up to his post on May 1st, sugesting that, based upon initial unemployment insurance claims, the economy is slowly beginning to improve.)

Employment -539,000 (Bonddad goes over the unemployment numbers. Also see here.)


Islam/Muslim Blogs:
Safinatun Naja’ Translated into English (Bin Gregory notes that the introductory text on Shafi'i fiqh, Safinatun Naja', has been translated into English and is now available for download.)

Patriotic, respectful and homophobic: a portrait of British Muslims' state of mind

British, Muslim and loyal: MCB welcomes Gallup poll findings

I Think It's Time for a Library Run (We may be about to lose another Muslimah blogger; insha'allah, hopefully not!)


Miscellaneous:
A Halo of NGC 6164

100 Awesome Blogs By Some of the World’s Smartest People (Of the 100, three are on my RSS reader, and I occasionally read one other. However, there are some rather notable exceptions to this listing, especially with respect to economics blogs, including Econbrowser and Brad DeLong blog.)

Is the Recession Over? Flip a Coin.

James Hamilton at Econbrowser has been looking over initial claims for unemployment insurance the past few weeks. His most recent post suggests a 50% chance that the recession may end by June. Remember that unemployment is a lagging economic indicator so that, if we really are nearing the end of the recession, then this decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims is a very good sign. On the other hand, as Dr. Hamilton points out, there's still a very good chance (50% historically) that unemployment claims could go back up again, something that's readily apparent in the first graph in my post back in February on US unemployment levels.

The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 14,000 during the most recent available week. That brings the 4-week average down for the third consecutive week and puts it 3.3% below the peak reached April 9.

Black line: seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance, weekly since January. Blue line: average of 4 most recent weeks as of each date.


That ongoing drop in the 4-week average is noteworthy because in each of the last 5 recessions, once the new claims number began declining from its peak value reached during the recession, the NBER subsequently dated the recovery from that recession as beginning within 8 weeks.

...

If we leave out the 1970 recession, there are 230 weeks in which the NBER declared the economy to have been in recession during the 5 recessions of 1974, 1980, 1982, 1990, and 2001. In 22 of these weeks, we saw as big a drop as we've seen this month, namely, the 4-week average dropped by more than 3.3% over a 3-week period. Of these 22 favorable readings, 11 turned out to be part of the final move out of recession, while in the other 11, new claims turned back up to reach a subsequent higher peak. Thus, if all you had to go on was the data on new unemployment claims and its behavior in previous recessions, you might conclude that there's a 50% chance that an economic recovery will have started by the beginning of June.

For some other possible signs of "green shoots," check out Bonddad's post on inventory levels in the 1Q09 GDP report.

Update: Economist's View reposted an article by Robert Gordon that was originally published on VoxEU. Gordon has been a member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee since 1978, although this article is his own work and was not written in collaboration with any other member of the committee. The article is a little long and technical, but the quotation below comes from the conclusion:

It is always too early to make definitive conclusions, but the recent 2009 peak in new claims looks sufficiently similar to previous recession peaks to allow a conclusion that it is highly probable that the new claims peak has now occurred. The evidence provided here suggests several differences between the recent peak and previous false peaks in earlier recessions. The recent peak occurred much later in the recession than previous false peaks, and the run-up of new claims in the two months prior to the recent peak was substantially faster than in previous false peaks.

To this point I have examined a single indicator to see if it is useful in predicting the end of recessions without any consideration of what is going on in the rest of the economy. Our conclusion is supported by the fact that previous false peaks occurred when new claims were at 80 to 90% of the level at the ultimate true peak. For the peak of 4 April 2009 to be false by this historical precedent, the ultimate future peak would have to be in the range of 730,000 to 800,000. As the weeks go by, such a sharp future increase in new claims looks increasingly implausible.

Bottomline – The US turn-around will come in May or June 2009

My reasoning leads me to conclude that the ultimate NBER trough of the current business cycle is likely to occur in May or June 2009, substantially earlier than is currently predicted by many professional forecasters.

(Emphasis author's.)

US Unemployment Rates - March 2009

The March US regional and state unemployment figures were released on April 17th. The figures, overall, continue to worsen, although there was some slight signs of improvement in several states. One state, North Dakota, and the District of Columbia had declining unemployment rates, while three states recorded no change in the past month. On the other hand, Indiana has joined the ranks of states with double-digit unemployment rates, which now total eight. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.4%, from 8.1% to 8.5%, over February's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased by 3.4%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.8%, from 14.8% to 15.6%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 6.5%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the state with the largest increase was Oregon, with an increase of 1.4%. Washington and West Virginia tied for the second largest increase, at 0.9%, while Wisconsin came in fourth with a 0.7% increase.
  
• On an annual basis, four states have increases over 5.0%: Oregon at 6.6%, South Carolina at 5.5%, North Carolina at 5.5%, and Michigan at 5.0%.
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are North Dakota at 1.2%, Iowa at 1.3%, Nebraska at 1.5%, Louisiana and Wyoming at 1.6%, Arkansas at 1.7%, and Utah at 1.9%.
  
• A total of eight states now have double-digit unemployment rates, up from seven in February. The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, at 12.6%, up 0.6%. Oregon comes in second with a rate of 12.1% (up 1.4%), and South Carolina places third with a rate of 11.4% (up 0.5%). In fourth place is California with a rate of 11.2%, up 0.6%. In fifth place is North Carolina at 10.8% (up 0.1%); in sixth is Rhode Island at 10.5% (no change), and in seventh is Nevada at 10.4% (up 0.4%). The newest state in the ranks of the double-digit unemployment rates is Indiana, at 10.0%, up 0.6%.
  
• The state of North Dakota and the District of Columbia both had positive (i.e., negative) changes in their unemployment rates. Both dropped down 0.1% each, from 4.3% to 4.2% for North Dakota, and from 9.9% to 9.8% for Washington D.C.
  
• As mentioned above, Rhode Island (10.5%) had no change in its unemployment rate between February and March; the other two states with no change are Georgia (9.2%) and New York (7.8%).
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be North Dakota (4.2%, down 0.1%), Wyoming (4.5%, up 0.6%), Nebraska (4.6%, up 0.3%), South Dakota (4.9%, up 0.3%) and Utah (5.2%, up 0.1%).
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since February are California (-62,100), Florida (-51,900), and Texas (-47,100).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-637,400), Florida (-424,300), Michigan (-270,500), and Illinois (-232,600).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

US Unemployment Rates - February 2009

The February US regional and state unemployment figures were released on March 27th. The figures, overall, continue to be bad, although some of the over-the-month rate changes between January and February were not as severe as they were the month before. One state, Nebraska, also had a declining unemployment rate. On the other hand, the number of states with double-digit unemployment rates has increased to seven. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.5%, from 7.6% to 8.1%, over January's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased 3.3%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.9%, from 13.9% to 14.8%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 5.8%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the states with the largest increases were North Carolina and Oregon, with changes of 1.0% each. One state, New Jersey, had a 0.9% increase, while four states had 0.8% increases. Those states are Georgia, Hawaii, New York and West Virginia.
  
• On an annual basis, three states have increases over 5.0%: North Carolina at 5.5%, Oregon at 5.4%, and South Carolina at 5.3%. Michigan and Nevada are tied for fourth at 4.6%.
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are Iowa at 1.0%, Wyoming at 1.1%, Nebraska at 1.2%, and North Dakota at 1.3%.
  
• A total of seven states now have double-digit unemployment rates, up from four in January. The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, at 12.0%, up 0.4%. South Carolina comes in second with a rate of 11.0% (up 0.6%), and Oregon places third with a rate of 10.8% (up 1.0%). In fourth place is North Carolina with a rate of 10.7%, also up 1.0%. Tied for fifth place is California and Rhode Island, both with a rate of 10.5%, up 0.4% for California and 0.2% for Rhode Island. The seventh place state, Nevada, also has double-digit unemployment with a rate of 10.1%, up 0.7%.
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be Wyoming (3.9%, up 0.2%), Nebraska (4.2%, down 0.1%), North Dakota (4.3%, up 0.1%), South Dakota (4.6%, up 0.2%) and Iowa (4.9%, up 0.1%).
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since January were California (-116,000), Florida (-49,500), and Texas (-46,100).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-605,900), Florida (-399,400), Michigan (-277,000), and Ohio (-222,100).

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

US Unemployment Rates - January 2009

The January US regional and state unemployment figures were released on March 11th. The figures, overall, continue to get worse, although there was one minor bright spot in the District of Columbia. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.4%, from 7.2% to 7.6%, over December's number. For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased 2.7%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.4%, from 13.5% to 13.9%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 4.9%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the states with the largest increases were North Carolina, Oregon, and South Carolina, all with a 1.6% increase; four states had a 1.4% increase, California, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, while three states had a 1.3% increase, Alabama, Maine and Washington.
  
• On an annual basis, two states tied for the largest increase, North Carolina and South Carolina, both at 4.7%. The next three are Oregon (4.6%), Indiana (4.4%), and Michigan (4.3%).
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are Iowa at 0.9%, Wyoming at 1.0%, and North Dakota and West Virginia at 1.2%.
  
• The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, which increased 1.4% to 11.6%; South Carolina comes in second with a rate of 10.4% (up 1.6%), and Rhode Island places third with a rate of 10.3% (up 0.9%). California also has a double-digit unemployment rate of 10.1%, up 1.4%.
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be Wyoming (3.7%, up 0.3%), North Dakota (4.2%, up 0.7%), Nebraska (4.3%, up 0.3%) and South Dakota (4.4%, up 0.5%).
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since December were California (-79,300), Michigan (-60,800), Ohio (-59,600) and Texas (-50,600).
  
• The one bright spot in terms of non-farm payroll employment was an increase in the number of jobs in the District of Columbia, up 5,800 (perhaps due to the change in administration and a corresponding ripple effect through the local economy).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-494,000), Florida (-355,700), Michigan (-263,800), and Ohio (-214,600). Wyoming is the only state that continues to have a positive annual change in employment, up 7,000 jobs for the year.

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

US Employment Levels Analysis

After publishing my previous post yesterday, I decided to take a closer look at the numbers.

My first thought was, while comparing the current recession to the previous two downturns makes sense, I didn't know how this recession compared to the others before 1990-91, such as the big recession in 1981-82 (a vivid memory for myself). Were there any recessions that were worse than either 1981-82 or 2007-09? (For my analysis, I'm using November 2007 as the start of the current recession.)

What I did was to download the US employment levels data, seasonally adjusted, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the period of January 1948 to the present. From this data, I found nine downturns in which employment sank on a significant basis, followed by a recovery period. I then took percentages from the nine downturns in which the highest level of employment prior to the downturn (the peak month) is equal to 100%. Following months, through to the point where the employment level once more reached the level of the peak month, were then compared as a percentage to the peak month.

What I found is that the 2007-09 recession is already the eighth worst downturn of the nine. Through January 2009, the employment level is at 96.89% of the peak month's level, a drop of 3.11%. Only the 1953-54 recession is worse (-3.82%). And, of course, there is no bottom in sight yet for the 2007-09 data; if current trends continue, 1953-54's record will be broken in either February or March at the latest.

Adding to the distress is the fact that 2007-09 is already in its fourteenth month past the peak. Only two other downturns took longer: 1953-54, which lasted sixteen months, and 1981-82, which lasted twenty months.

Eventually, of course, previous recessions reached a bottom and then began a period of economic recovery. Of the eight previous recoveries, the average length of time was 12.38 months from the trough month through to the level where employment reached the previous peak. (It should be noted, though, that the previous two recoveries, 1991-93 and 2002-03, took twenty-one and seventeen months respectively, which were by far the two longest recoveries since 1948.)

If the 1953-54 recession is any guide to what may be in store for this recession, any recovery back to November 2007 employment levels will not occur prior to March 2010 at the earliest, and quite possibly not until August-December 2010.

Let's hope I'm wrong, and that we reach the trough and the recovery months more quickly.

3,600,000 and Counting

Here's a graph to make you wet your pants a little. As The Gavel points out, the current recession is much, much more serious in terms of job losses to date (3.6 million and counting) than the previous two. And there's no bottom in sight.

This chart compares the job loss so far in this recession to job losses in the 1990-1991 recession and the 2001 recession – showing how dramatic and unprecedented the job loss over the last 13 months has been. Over the last 13 months, our economy has lost a total of 3.6 million jobs – and continuing job losses in the next few months are predicted.

By comparison, we lost a total of 1.6 million jobs in the 1990-1991 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing; and we lost a total of 2.7 million jobs in the 2001 recession, before the economy began turning around and jobs began increasing.

US Unemployment Rates - December 2008

The December US regional and state unemployment figures were released in late January. The figures, overall, continue to get worse. Here are some of the highlights:

• Overall, the "official" national unemployment rate (U-3) increased by 0.4%, from 6.8% to 7.2%, over November's number. (November's percentage was revised upward by 0.1%.) For the past twelve months, the national rate has increased 2.3%.
  
• For the most inclusive unemployment rate measured (U-6), the increase was 0.9%, from 12.6% to 13.5%. For the past twelve months, U-6 has increased by 4.8%.
  
• In terms of monthly change, the states with the largest increases were Indiana and South Carolina, both with a 1.1% increase; six states had a 1.0% increase: Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New York and Oregon.
  
• On an annual basis, the state with the largest increase continues to be Rhode Island with an increase of 4.8%. North Carolina remains in second place with an increase of 4.0%, and Nevada has jumped into third with an increase of 3.9%.
  
• The states with the lowest annual increases are North Dakota at 0.3%, Arkansas at 0.7%, and Iowa and Oklahoma at 0.8% each.
  
• The state with the highest unemployment rate is Michigan, which increased 1.0% to 10.6%; Rhode Island remains in second place, with a rate of 10.0% (up 0.7%). South Carolina comes in third at 9.5% (up 1.1%).
  
• The states with the lowest unemployment rates continue to be Wyoming (3.4%, up 0.2%), North Dakota (3.5%, up 0.2%), and South Dakota (3.9%, up 0.5%).
  
• In terms of non-farm payroll employment (i.e., number of jobs), the states with the biggest decreases since November were California (-78,200), Michigan (-59,000), and New York (-54,000).
  
• For annual changes in non-farm payroll employment, the states with the biggest decreases are California (-257,400), Florida (-255,200), and Michigan (-173,000). Texas continues to be the nation's bright spot, with an annual increase of 153,700, down 67,500 from November.

The PDF version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics press release can be found here.

The Unemployed: Lazy or Productive?

A short, interesting Freakonomics blog post over at The New York Times: what do people do when they're unemployed? Are they lazy with an excess amount of free time on their hands? Or do they try to be busy and find ways to raise money while working at home?

How do unemployed people spend their time? How does unemployment affect time use in the entire economy? What is the lost output from unemployment, and what is the utility loss?

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The unemployed use the time freed up from work for pay almost entirely in leisure and personal maintenance; they do no more household work than employed people. Similarly, in areas where unemployment is perennially high, there is less work for pay, more leisure, but no more household production.

But when unemployment suddenly rises, as in a recession, people shift from work for pay to household production; people don’t take more leisure time than before.

So if we would measure output to include production at home, we would infer that a recession doesn’t reduce total output by as much as we thought; and perhaps the utility burden of a short recession is not as severe as one might imagine.