Muslim Demographics

Warning: The above video is Islamophobic; also, it may be rather slow in streaming in.

What follows is derived from a comment I wrote on another person's diary at Daily Kos that tackles the issues raised in the above video. The purpose of the video is to show how Muslim demographics, as represented by a total fertility rate statistic (see the definition below), is changing how Europe and North America will look in the next 50 years. Of course, the producers of this video see Islam as a threat and are using the video to encourage fellow Christians to proselytize to Muslims.


The "Muslim Demographics" video presents a number of demographic statistics, primarily focusing on countries in Europe and North America, purporting to show how these countries will eventually turn Muslim. The problem with the video is that a number of the statistics presented are of a dubious quality, and the producers neglect to mention some other statistics that are relevant - and damaging - to their argument.

I have checked the total fertility rates in the CIA's World Factbook against what is claimed in the video. Most of the fertility rate statistics presented in the video are off, mostly being understated (to make matters look worse, no doubt). Below are the statistics presented in the video (first column) and per the CIA (second column):

France 1.8 - 1.98
United Kingdom 1.6 - 1.66
Greece 1.3 - 1.37
Germany 1.3 - 1.41
Italy 1.2 - 1.31
Spain 1.1 - 1.31
European Union 1.38 - 1.51

Now here's where I have problems (in part because I don't know where the producers were getting their numbers from). They give the example of France, saying that French families have a fertility rate of 1.8 children per family, but that Muslim families in France have a fertility rate of 8.1 children. However, if the Muslim population in France is so big (it isn't), then the non-Muslim fertility rate should be lower than the 1.8 presented. What that number is, off-hand, I don't know (and I'm not sure that the French national statistics bureau knows either*).

But let's ignore that and look at the real problem. According to the CIA the percentage of Muslims in France is 5-10% of the total population. OK, let's use the higher number, 10%. The US Census Bureau, which does year-by-year estimates for each country's population through the year 2050, says that France has a population in 2009 of 64,420,073; 10% of that would be (roughly) 6,442,000 Muslims in France. In 2050 (slightly more than the 39 years estimated by the producers for Muslims to become a majority in France), the French population is estimated to be 69,768,223. Half of that number is (roughly) 34,884,000.** So, Muslims need to both breed and immigrate to the tune of 28 million** new people (give or take a half-million) while non-Muslim French society shrinks correspondingly. Do you see where I'm going? Do you see how preposterous the argument is?

The other countries (and we'll only focus on Europe for now) are not too different (all numbers from the CIA World Factbook):

United Kingdom 2.7% Muslim
Greece 1.3%
Germany 3.7%
Italy, Spain and the European Union, all NA

The base figures upon which the Muslim population growth rates are applied are so small that it will take much longer than 40 years for Muslims to become the majority religion in much of Europe, if ever, insha'allah.

Now for the Canadian fertility rate, the producers actually overstated the statistic, claiming 1.6 vs. the CIA's number of 1.58. For the US, the claim is also 1.6 (although they also claim 2.11 with "Latino immigration"). The CIA comes up with a fertility rate of 2.05. And the claim of 9 million American Muslims seems excessively high, especially when most American Muslims claim 2-6 million at the most.

Overall, as a Muslim, I find the video typical of Christian proselytizing: Islam as the boogey man. The myth that "Islam is going to take over the world" has been a rallying cry among Christians for a long time now, but that doesn't mean it will become true nor even that Muslims seek such an agenda. I give the data in the video little credence, and even if Muslims do come to dominate the demographic landscape in European countries, so what? It's not like Europeans can't have babies like everyone else.

The secondary threat in the video is very clear: immigration is allowing hordes of dark people to settle in white Europe and America. "The horror!" And yet the anti-immigration crowd doesn't stop to think about certain implications their agenda would create if it became public policy. As the video shows (at the 1:34 mark), a shrinking population creates a smaller and smaller workforce. Who is going to shoulder the financial burden of dependents, both children and elderly, if the native working population (normally defined as those between the ages of 15 and 64) keeps shrinking? Who will help keep tax revenues and social security benefits topped up if the native working population keeps shrinking? Yes, thank God for those immigrants who do the work native citizens don't want to do yet pay into the system for the benefit of all.

The Christians realize, of course, that there's little they can do to either stop the number of Muslims being born or immigrating into Western countries. That's why the "call to action" at the end of the movie is to proselytize. Convert the Muslims into becoming Christians instead. Heh; fat chance of that. Better for them to join the winning team.

-------------------

* How would they know when even the CIA gives such a wide base figure of 5-10% for the entire Muslim population in France?

** Thanks to anonymous for the correction.

CIA World Factbook Definition for "Total Fertility Rate":

This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population change in the country. A rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a population, resulting in relative stability in terms of total numbers. Rates above two children indicate populations growing in size and whose median age is declining. Higher rates may also indicate difficulties for families, in some situations, to feed and educate their children and for women to enter the labor force. Rates below two children indicate populations decreasing in size and growing older. Global fertility rates are in general decline and this trend is most pronounced in industrialized countries, especially Western Europe, where populations are projected to decline dramatically over the next 50 years. (CIA World Factbook)

Update: Martijn at Closer has a post about the Muslim Demographics video that's helpful in several respects: it has a transcript of the video, an excerpt of a good review by Tiny Frog, along with some general comments about the video as it relates to The Netherlands, where Martijn is located. There are also links to several other reviews (including my diary over at Street Prophets, which was a slightly edited version of this post), and a significant excerpt from another article on the topic. Overall, if you're interested in the topic, it's well worth your time to read Martijn's post and peruse some of his links.

The Foreign Fashion Models' Employment Relief Act of 2008

An odd story out of The Economist this week: Apparently not enough foreign fashion models are able to get H-1B's, a temporary work visa the U.S. government gives to foreign nationals for specialized occupations. The H-1B, of which only 65,000 are allotted per year, is frequently given to tech workers; companies such as Microsoft and Infosys sponsor many of the H-1B employees, and even they are feeling the pinch from not enough foreign talent coming into the country. "Bill Gates, Microsoft's chairman, testified to a Senate committee last year that the only way to solve the 'critical shortage of scientific talent' was to open up the country's doors."

This is causing the New York fashion industry to get their knickers in a twist. Coming to the rescue is Congressman Anthony Weiner (D-NY09), who has proposed a bill that would allow models to be reclassified into their own special immigration category. "This would free up more visas for the nerds; and it would allow 1,000 models to strut their stuff in America each year, compared with just 349 in 2007, half the annual number admitted between 2000 and 2005."

So why is Weiner sponsoring this bill?

Steve King, an Iowa congressman, thinks the bill should be called the “Ugly American Act” because it implies there are not enough beautiful people in the United States. But Mr Weiner, a bachelor accused by the tabloids and his fellow politicians of using the visa issue to get himself a glamorous date, says he's only thinking of New York's economy, which is heavily involved in the fashion industry.

The business generates thousands of jobs and millions in tax revenue: the average photo-shoot costs about $100,000. If a foreign model is denied entry, he says, the production is likely to be lost to other countries. New York's skyline or California's hills can be easily photoshopped in later. This “beauty drain,” as the newspaper Politico calls it, affects make-up artists, stylists and photographers as well as media companies and advertising agencies.

In other words, if this bill becomes law, all those foreign models, who have such limited prospects for modeling in their own countries, would be allowed to model in the U.S. if they're to avoid working at a real job.

But what about the "supermodels," you ask? Fear not! There's some good news:

...[S]upermodels like Gisele Bündchen are in the clear. They are eligible for O-1 visas, given to those with “extraordinary ability,” like Nobel laureates.